BY Nadeeka Dissanayake
Stacking up predictions over multiple sectors during his address to an hi-end diplomatic conclave based in Madhya Pradesh in India held recently, former President of Sri Lanka Ranil Wickremesinghe emphasized that power is coming to Asia.
Attending the NXT Conclave 2025 last month being among the three guests of honour along with former Prime Minister of Canada Stephen Harper, former Prime Minister of Australia Tony Abbot, Wickremesinghe delivered the speech focused on vision for South Asia. Elaborating on a future vision for South Asia, Wickremesinghe pointed out: “Power is coming to South Asia; we can start our own initiatives,” bringing in example of China’s adamant move in establishing the Belt and Road Initiative also known as One Belt: One Road. “If they can do it, why can’t we?” he added.
Referring to the 8th Indian Ocean Conference held in Muscat in February Wickremesinghe reminded about proposing the establishment of a central secretariat for the Indian Ocean, as there is the current need to consider the Indian Ocean as a separate entity – “We cannot have Indo-Pacific,” emphasized Wickremesinghe.
At the NXT Conclave 2025, organized by Kartikeya Sharma, a Member of Indian Rajya Sabha, amultisectoral entrepreneur, philanthropist and media mogul. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi graced the event at its chief guest. The Conclave was a collection of ideologies shared by experts in 20 segments of various subjects from media, space technology, quantum computing, water, green energy, governance, Indo-Pacific etc. The official website of the conclave mentions that the event was powered by Adani Group. Overall the platform, powered by Indian high and mighty, acts as a heavy influencer in concentrating power within South Asia.
Wickremesinghe’s vision for South Asia delivered at this powerful platform, being invited as one of the three guests of honour, centered on the predictions of India’s uprise into a global super power. Wickremesinghe elaborating on the ideology of establishing an independent ‘South Asian’ identity, shedding the nomenclature created by the Europeans and the US, highlighted that India will elevate as the second largest economy of the world by 2050 – 25 years from present. “We are now seeing an emergence of an area with more commonalities than trade,” he added. He highlighted that by 2050 there will be new global order with three global powers, i.e. China, India and US. “We have to keep these (facts) in back of our mind, when we decide on the future of what is called South Asia,” Wickremesinghe added.
Wickremesinghe brings in a vision for a greater South Asia, which is networked beyond the region to the ASEAN countries. He views that the economic growth of countries in the region will be positively influenced with the rise of India as the second largest economy in the world, while Indonesia reaches the fourth position. A fact that proves power is coming to Asia. In the vision for 2050, among the first 30 countries of world economy would be Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam. “Today India has reached the take off point to become an economic super power. Therefore, the next two decades will witness an explosion of economic growth. Its now that you have the feeling,” he pointed out predicting that in 2050 the Indian GDP will reach nine folds of its current value, reaching $ 30 trillion. “ This growth over the next 25 years will require new supply chains, manufacturing cluster developments in the greater South Asian region explained Wickremesinghe adding that new supply chains will not be confined to India, but will also include the ASEAN economies, and providing opportunities for Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to become suppliers of intermediate goods, under different comprehensive partnership programmes with India. Focusing on these lines to Sri Lanka, Wickremesinghe predicted that Sri Lanka will develop an economic corridor with South India, if the proposed comprehensive economic partnership programme with India realizes. Shedding light on collaborations, he pointed out the already reached agreement between Malaysia and Singapore to establish a joint economic zone, which will provide an economic boost to the greater South Asian economic development.
In this series of predictions, he mentioned that China will reach only a three-fold economic development, while India will reach a nine-fold development, comparing the future GDP figures. Amidst these developments he assures that Sri Lanka can reach a one trillion dollar economy. “Which is not possible without the rise of the Indian economy,” he pointed out. Accordingly, these economic developments will require a different economic architecture, with the SAARC countries’ protectionist outlook.
The best option for South Asian countries would be bilateral trade agreements and partnerships unlike ASEAN where multilateral partnerships can flourish. “There will be no European style of treaties,” Wickremesinghe added.
Further, commenting on the complexity of trade, bilateral partnerships and agreements, the situation would be like a ‘noodle bowl’ said Wickremesinghe. “It will be much confusing and will provide more work for our lawyers and accountants,” he added.
“We do not need new regional organisations – all that we require is a stronger coordination between BIMSTEC, ASEAN and SAARC. We need to make BIMSTEC more effective and improvements in Indo-Pakistan is required for SAARC, because by 2075 Pakistan will be the 5th or the 6th largest economy of the world,” he highlighted.
In the shifts of geopolitics amidst these developments, the greater South Asia will result in India taking the leading role, he said. Accordingly, it will be dominating economy with cultural, social and political commonalities.
Commenting on the global shift of political powers, with the changed point of view of US, Wickremesinghe depicts a positive picture for South Asian rising economic power, stating that the emergence of abovementioned global powers – i.e. India, China and US – will be faster. Added that this will change the picture of the entire range, stating that European era is fading with limited strength.
The vision for South Asia or greater South Asia, could be seen with the new development happening in the Sri Lankan socio- economic shifts with the recent visit to Sri Lanka of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
At the Conclave Wickremesinghe emphasized that South Asians need to act fast before the opportunity gets slipped away.
Instead of waiting until India reaches second economic power in the globe, Wickremesinghe emphasized the need to get together and act immediately, to ensure the visions are materialized.
As Indian Premier visits Sri Lanka, just a month after the Conclave, it is not impossible to see economic ties, cultural and social links established in the visions discussed among the stakeholders at the Conclave.
Entangled in an IMF debt restructuring programme, will Sri Lanka be wise enough to vision the future beyond the current economic constraints and move for a better future? In flashing back memory over the incidents of the past month, would the Indian head of State visit be more than a visit, but pave a different path for the all-sectoral development for Sri Lanka, making the one trillion dollar economic development for Sri Lanka to materialize.